Insights

2024 Open Championship Preview: This Season’s Major Players

Words by
Dan Davies
2024 Open Championship Preview: This Season’s Major Players

A total of 23 players have made the cut in all three majors this season but five familiar names have separated themselves in terms of scoring and finishes. As the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon approaches, can the Clippd data help us to identify who will finish as the undisputed Major Player of 2024? 

In terms of scoring, US Open champion Bryson DeChambeau (above) has performed the best across three majors this year. He is followed — in order — by PGA champion Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, who had top-5 finishes at the Masters and US Open, 2024 Masters champion Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy, who came agonisingly close to ending his 10-year major drought at Pinehurst.

The 18th hole at Royal Troon. Photograph by Kevin Murray.

We’ve taken a deep dive into these players' Clippd data from the season’s three majors, using Average Shot Quality to see how they compare and to examine their best and worst performances. Clippd’s Shot Quality algorithm has been trained on millions of shots played over many years by male tour players in tournament rounds. Remember, a Shot Quality score of 100 represents men’s tour average. 

In the Clippd app, we show Shot Quality as a whole number but given how close the five players at the top of the charts are in so many areas of the game, we have included fractions of a point.

Top-5 golfers: scores to par across the three majors in 2024

Bryson DeChambeau and Xander Schauffele are well out in front in terms of aggregate scoring across the three majors in 2024. Scottie's uncharacteristically poor performance at the US Open has pushed him below Collin Morikawa, who has been a model of consistency in this year's Grand Slams.

Top-5 golfers: Average Shot Quality across the 2024 Masters, PGA and US Open

Xander Schauffele's 21-under-par winning score at the PGA Championship has produced the best Average Shot Quality in this season's majors (110.5). It's interesting to note that Rory McIlroy had a marginally higher Average Shot Quality than Bryson at the US Open, despite finishing second by a shot. This is partly explained by the fact that across 72 holes Rory hit nine more elite shots (scoring 140 or more for Shot Quality) than the man who lifted the trophy.

Top-5 golfers: Highest single round Average Shot Quality at 2024 majors, thru US Open

Four of the five best round scores for Average Shot Quality came at the PGA, with Xander's Thursday 62 being comfortably the highest. Some, however, will argue that Rory's opening 65 at Pinehurst No.2 was just as good if not better, given the severity of the test.

Top-5 golfers: Best Average Shot Quality for final rounds in 2024 major championships

While Scottie Scheffler is regarded as the 'King of the Closers', Xander has the slight edge on him in terms of final round performance at the 2024 majors. Rory is level with Scottie for R4 Average Shot Quality, although he was under less pressure because he was not in serious contention at either the Masters or the PGA.

Elite shots hit by top-5 golfers in 2024 major championships

Given his prodigious talent, it will not come as a great surprise that Rory has played the highest number of elite shots (scoring 140 or more for Shot Quality) at the three majors this season. Having hit 139 of them at the Masters, PGA and US Open, he is six ahead of both Bryson and Scottie. Morikawa has hit almost eight less elite shots per major than the Northern Irishman, but as the table below shows....

Top-5 golfers: Poor shots hit in 2024 major championships

...Rory has hit considerably more poor shots (scoring 40 or less for Shot Quality) than any of the other four players, almost four per major more than Morikawa and Schauffele (22 each for the season). Scottie Scheffler has turned minimising mistakes into something of an art form, although it's surprising that is his highest number of poor shots came at the Masters (16), which is also the most any of these five players in the three majors. Equally surprising is the fact Scheffler's lowest total of miscues came at the US Open, where his form was indifferent and he was never a factor.

Top-5 golfers: Avg Shot Quality for Off The Tee for three majors in 2024

Rory and Bryson are out in front for driving by quite some distance. Rory's Average Shot Quality from the tee was an astonishing 116.25 at the US Open while Bryson averaged 115.5 at the PGA Championship, where he finished second by a shot to Xander.

Top-5 golfers: Highest single round Avg Shot Quality for Off The Tee at 2024 majors

While the numbers above are hugely impressive, and indicative of five of the world's best drivers of the golf ball, all but one of the seven best driving performances took place at Valhalla, which was criticised for being too easy for a major. Bryson's 126 Average Shot Quality in round one at Pinehurst, where he averaged 325 yards and hit 86% of fairways, is perhaps the standout performance of the major season thus far.

Top-5 golfers: Avg Shot Quality for Approach at 2024 majors

Xander Schauffele's iron play has been elite at this year's majors for all but two rounds — R2 at the Masters, when he shot level par, and R3 at the US Open, when he finished two over. Scottie has dipped below the Shot Quality tour average of 100 on three occasions, including R2 and R3 at the Masters where he still managed to lap the field. The gap between Schauffele and Scheffler at the top and McIlroy and Morikawa at the bottom is wide, a surprise given the latter is renowned as a ball-striking machine. When he starts really firing with his irons, Morikawa could be very hard to beat.

Top-5 golfers: Highest single round Avg Shot Quality for Approach in 2024 majors

Again, the difference between the iron play of these players at their very best this season will not be a source of comfort to McIlroy, whose approach game has not been in the same league as Scottie, Bryson and Xander this year.

Top-5 golfers: Avg Shot Quality for Around the Green in 2024 majors

Chipping has not traditionally been considered the strongest part of Collin Morikawa's game but as the table above shows, he has been better than his closest rivals at the majors this season.

Top-5 golfers: Highest single round Avg Shot Quality for Around the Green in 2024 majors

While Rory tops the table with a 149 average Shot Quality for Around The Green in his opening round at Pinehurst, he did so with only four chip shots. Of these four chips, he holed one from 22 yards, put one to a foot from 20 yards and got the other two from 28 and 24 yards within 8 feet. Morikawa's Average Shot Quality of 142 during his second round 69 at Augusta came from nine shots, in which his average proximity was an incredible four feet and five inches.

Top-5 golfers: Highest Avg Shot Quality for putting at 2024 majors

Bryson has putted the best across the three majors in 2024 (above). He has a clear advantage over Scottie Scheffler who despite making improvements with the putter still languishes well behind his closest rivals.

Top-5 golfers: Highest single round Avg Shot Quality at 2024 majors

The gap between Scottie's best putting and the rest at their best is telling. Morikawa putted the lights out in R3 at Pinehurst, where he made 140ft 5ins of putts, almost double tour average for a single round. Scheffler made less than half that distance in his last round at Augusta, his best putting round this year at the majors, although his 107 Average Shot Quality did include a 54% make rate for birdie or better (tour average is 30%).

Seven other players are an aggregate under par for the three majors this year: Tommy Fleetwood (-10), Patrick Cantlay (-5), Russell Henley (-4), Hideki Matsuyama (-3), Shane Lowry, Corey Conners and Tony Finau (all -2). Min Woo Lee and Keegan Bradley are at even par for the three championships, with the following all over par having made the cut in all three: Harris English (+1), Tom Kim (+2), Cam Smith (+2), Tyrell Hatton (+3), Sahith Theegala (+4), Brooks Koepka (+6), Nicolai Hojgaard (+9), Cam Young (+11) and Ryan Fox (+21).

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Main image courtesy of LIV Golf