Eleven of the 18 holes at Marco Simone have changes in elevation for approach shots that are more extreme than seen on 80% of PGA Tour courses. The average absolute elevation change for approach shots on a PGA Tour course is 2.5 metres. The average absolute elevation change for approach shots at Marco Simone is 6.2 metres per hole.

Holes 12-18 are more undulating still, with an absolute average elevation of 8.8 metres for approach shots, so almost four times as much as the players who compete in America will be used to.

The course begins with some relatively flat holes but the back nine sees some dramatic uphill and downhill holes, as the graphic below illustrates. Holes 6, 9, 10, 11 and 17 play significantly uphill for the approach, while 7, 12, 14, 16 (which is a drivable par 4) and 18 play significantly downhill.

In the foursomes/alternate shot format, it will be important to have players with strengths on downhill or uphill approach shots, playing the second shots into the greens.

We have looked at Average Shot Quality for approach shots of more than 140 yards on holes with an absolute elevation change of more than 3.3 metres or 10 feet, which for these purposes we define as extreme. The sample is taken from PGA Tour and DP World Tour events since September 2022. A Shot Quality of 100 represents male tour average while 200 represents statistical perfection, such as a hole in one or holing out from long distance.

As we can see below, Team Europe has six of the top 10 performers on holes with extreme elevation changes.

Europe also has an advantage in downhill approach shots (see below), with the top four players in the list and six of the top 10. This list points to Aberg, Fleetwood, Rose (who is a foursomes specialist) and Rahm being best matched to the second shots into holes 12, 14 and 18. Many will attempt to drive the 16th and if not, the approach is likely to be less than 80 yards.

Team USA is stronger with uphill approach shots, with six of the top-10 players. We’d be surprised if Scheffler and Morikawa are not taking the second shots into holes 9 and 15, which require uphill iron shots, or the tee shot on the par-3 17th. The 11th is a short uphill par-4 that will require a draw with a driver.

We have picked out three key holes on the back nine, all with significant elevation changes on the approach shots. Both teams will want to have their best performers at the estimated approach distances hitting into the green. This will be particularly important in the foursomes/alternate shot matches.

We have analysed tour data since September 2022 to see which four players on each team have the highest Average Shot Quality at uphill/downhill shots at each of the distances required.

‍Conclusions

‍Home advantage is baked into the design of Marco Simone, with the extreme nature of the elevation changes, particularly on the back nine, being something that the American players rarely experience. The back nine is also set up to favour uphill and downhill specialists.

‍Tommy Fleetwood should be a lock for European foursomes line-ups given his proven ability on hilly layouts. He is adept at playing both uphill and downhill approach shots, which should make him a cornerstone in this format.

‍Rory McIlroy should tee off on odd holes in the foursomes in order to be able to hit the key second shots into 12 and 18. This would also mean he could take on the drivable uphill 11th, which requires a draw - a shot he can hit with driver - to get into the green.

‍Collin Morikawa is the McIlroy equivalent on Team USA, being one of the top performers at both downhill and uphill shots but excelling in the likely approach distances required for 12 and 18, as well as the tee shot into the tough par-3 17th.  

The Cantlay-Scheffler partnership again looks like being good news for Team USA given that both players are in the top three for form among the Americans and among the best across extreme elevation changes. Neither displays any clear bias for uphill or downhill, which is another reason why they are such a formidable pair.

Our suggested foursomes pairings (first name tees off on 1)

Team Europe

McIlroy/Lowry

Hovland/Aberg

Rahm/Hatton

Rose/Fleetwood

‍Team USA

Cantlay/Schauffele

Morikawa/Clark

Burns/Scheffler

Thomas/Fowler

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‍Methodology

To investigate the extent of the elevation changes awaiting the Ryder Cup players at Marco Simone, the Clippd data science team turned to our DP World Tour partnership and the data from the last two Italian Opens played at the course.

Using this data the team were able to ascertain the average GPS coordinates for approach shots played from either the fairway or the tee (such as on par 3s) as well as the pin locations in each round of these events. This data was then fed through our external elevation service provider to determine the approximate elevation change for approach shots on each hole.

Shotlink provides elevation data for each shot played on the PGA Tour making it very straightforward to calculate the average elevation change (between starting location and pin) for every approach shot played on every hole over the course of the most recent full season’s worth of data.

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