Scheffler, the reigning champion and world number one, has won twice already this season – six times since the start of 2022 – and came very close to adding a third victory of 2023 in a stout defence of the Dell World Matchplay title in Texas. 

McIlroy has seven top 10 finishes in his last nine Masters appearances. He’s reclaimed (and lost) his No.1 spot, won in Dubai earlier this year (which has an interesting same-year correlation with strong showings at Augusta) and did all but win a major last season. 

Jon Rahm’s form in the first five events of the year was astonishing – 1st, 1st, T7th, 3rd, 1st. Despite a blip over the last three weeks, his credentials are as rock solid as the two players above him in the world rankings. He has made the cut in all his six Masters appearances and has four top 10s.

So, who beyond this new ‘Big Three’ might figure at the newly lengthened Augusta National? A large part of our analysis for this year’s Masters consisted of identifying correlations between player profiles in the weeks before the tournament and the resulting leaderboard at the close of play on Sunday at Augusta National.

To do this, we took the top 10 and ties from the last three spring Masters (2022, 2021 and 2019 - excluding Dustin Johnson’s 2020 win as this was played at a completely different time of year) and identified commonalities in those top 10 players’ games in the lead up to the event. Particular focus was placed on areas of the game which were strengths and those which were trending upwards.

The key findings of our analysis were:

1. Top 10 players show considerable strength in Driving and 180+ Approach shots. This is consistent with the commonly held belief that Augusta National is a second shot golf course, as players need to hit a good drive and a good long approach to set up scoring opportunities on the par 5s.

2. The best performers are trending up in medium and long range putting (15-35ft and 35ft+). Longer range putting is always going to be important to avoid mistakes. Players finishing towards the top of the leaderboard tend to be riding high on confidence in this area going into the Masters.

3. ARG shots from the fairway have an overstated importance versus the average Tour event given the closely-mown green surrounds.

By comparing player profiles of the Masters invitees to the archetypal top 10 player profile, we were able to identify some players to keep an eye out for. So let’s see who, beyond the obvious candidates, might have the right ingredients at the correct temperatures this year. 

Note: we have not included LIV players because we have no data for them beyond their last PGA Tour or DP World Tour appearance. All other players’ data is correct up to the Valspar Championship. We do not include data from the Dell World Matchplay.

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The driver is used on most par 4s and all the par 5s at Augusta and Cameron Young and Will Zalatoris are in the best recent form with the big stick, boasting an Average Shot Quality of 110 over the last 20 rounds.

Nine of the top 11 players in the world rankings appear in the top-20 in this period. Max Homa and Xander Schauffele are the only exceptions. A large asterisk is put next to Cameron Smith’s name due to lack of recent data. 

Interesting names in the top-20 for OTT Driver include Ryan Fox, who won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last year, triumphing on the Old Course at St Andrews, which has a correlation to Augusta. Fox, who finished second in last year’s Race to Dubai on the DP World Tour, is at 107 for Average Shot Quality with his Driver in the last 20 rounds. 

The big-hitting New Zealander is making his Augusta debut this year but he seems to relish tough tests. In his three appearances on the PGA Tour this year, Fox has finished T14 (Bay Hill), T27 (The Players) and was unlucky not to make it through the group stages at the Matchplay. He is also in the top 10 for APP 180+ yards and is trending up sharply in 15-35ft putts. If he chips well, he scores well.

Min Woo Lee, who finished T14 on his Masters debut last year, is at 106 for Average Shot Quality with his Driver in the last 20 rounds. The World No. 47, and younger brother of the reigning US Women’s Open champion, would have finished considerably higher last year were it not for coming home in 40 on Sunday after shooting a record-equalling 30 for the first nine holes.

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Augusta is renowned as a second shot golf course, requiring ball striking prowess and accuracy to find small landing areas on viciously sloping greens.

In the best form for Approach shots of 180+ yards over the last 20 rounds are Patrick Cantlay, previous Masters specialist Justin Rose and Jon Rahm, who all have an Average Shot Quality of 111. No surprises that Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler are also the highest echelons for these iron shots, although Tom Hoge, Sungjae Im, Min Woo Lee and Ryan Fox are more interesting inclusions. 

Tom Hoge came T3 at The Players and T14 at The Genesis Invitational this year. At this distance, his Average Shot Quality over the last 20 rounds is 105. Sungjae finished T2 in the ‘Winter’ Masters of 2020 and was a tidy 8th last year. The three most important parts of his game for scoring are OTT Driver, APP 180+ yards and ARG Fairway, and he is ranked inside the top 20 for each over the last 20 rounds. 

Min Woo Lee also has excellent Average Shot Quality numbers at longer distances with his irons. He was right up there at The Players until a bad last day and also made a ton of birdies in the Matchplay group stages in Austin.

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Augusta’s greens present a game within a game, and Max Homa and Alex Noren of Sweden come out on top at this distance with an Average Shot Quality of 105 over their last 20 rounds. Noren is also in the top 20 for PUTT 35ft+ and ARG Fairway, but has no recent form and a poor record at Augusta. Homa’s is not much better, although that could soon change given he has become an elite player over the last 12 months, and his putting has been elite for a good deal longer.

Other top recent performers at this range include Will Zalatoris and Min Woo Lee (again). The 24-year-old Australian is becoming a big stage player and he has a big upward trend over the last 20 rounds (not including the Matchplay). Tony Finau is also trending nicely. He’s had a frustrating season to date but is also a top performer for APP 180+ yards and PUTT 35ft+. He also has three top 10s in his five Masters appearances, loves Augusta and banked the experience of playing with Tiger on the last day in 2019. 

Over the last 20 rounds, Ryan Fox has the sharpest upward trajectory at 15-35 feet. Other notable improvers include Adam Scott, KH Lee and Matt Fitzpatrick. The Englishman and reigning US Open champion has made the cut in the last seven Masters but his best finish of T7 came in 2016.

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Longer putting can be more indicative of a solid stroke than short putting, which the data shows is more mercurial. Lag putting and pace control are prime concerns at Augusta.

Scottie Scheffler is way out in front in this category with a quite ridiculous Average Shot Quality of 112 over the last 20 rounds. Tyrrell Hatton (106), Jon Rahm (105) and Patrick Cantlay (105) also appear in the upper reaches, with Hatton and Rahm enjoying sharp recent upturns in form. 

Russell Henley, who has made the cut in his last five Masters, leads the next best group on 100, one ahead of Tom Hoge (again), Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa. Max Homa is ranked lower but trending very positively, as is Jordan Spieth.

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Not surprisingly, there is a bigger premium on ARG Fairway (shots from under 50 yards from the tightly mown green surrounds and fairways) at Augusta than at normal PGA Tour venues. Along with OTT Driver and APP 180+ yards, Clippd identifies it as the third most important skill required of a Masters contender.

Sungjae Im (108), Max Homa (107) and Rory McIlroy (107) top the list for Average Shot Quality over the last 20 rounds. Min Woo Lee is on 105 with a strong upward trend, as is Russell Henley. 

Matt Fitzpatrick features in the top 20 and is trending significantly in recent weeks, as are Jon Rahm and Sam Burns, whose excellent play to win the Dell World Matchplay, a tournament that Scottie Scheffler won before taking the Masters in his very next outing, is not included in this data set.

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Min Woo Lee is the only player to appear in the top-20 of four of the five categories. He has upward trends in three, with two of them – PUTT 15-35ft and ARG Fairway – being significant .

Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau and Sungjae Im all appear in the top 20 in three of the five categories identified by Clippd. Rahm has the biggest upward trends in two of those categories: PUTT 35ft+ and ARG Fairway.

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Tom Hoge is the only player who has upward trends in four of the five categories and strong trends in two of them – OTT Driver and ARG Fairway. He also appears in the top-20 in three of the five categories for Average Shot Quality over the last 20 rounds. 

The 33-year-old is having a very solid season. In his impressive T3 finish at The Players Championship he opened with a 78 and was 16 under par for the next three rounds, including a 62 on Saturday. 

Hoge made the cut on his Masters debut last year. He also won at Pebble Beach, adding his name to a very long and illustrious list of AT&T Pro-Am winners who have also donned a Green Jacket at Augusta.

Clippd’s 'outsider' picks for top-10 performances this year: Sungjae Im, Min Woo Lee, Tom Hoge